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06 // CAMPUS CRIME

 On June 4, 2025, United States' President Donald J. Trump decreed that he, with the administrative power of the U.S. government, would be denying visas to for foreign/international students applying to Harvard for the foreseeable future.

Trump's reasons for this decision was an alleged crime increase at Harvard, as well as accusing Harvard of failing to hand in records of its international students to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Of course, the university has denied such an act.

But have the crime rates of one of America's most reputable Ivy League schools actually increased? At least, enough to warrant such a drastic action?

(Shot of Harvard's campus by Nico Trinkhaus)
The Jeanne Clery Act requires all American universities to annually report any campus crime data to their alumni, as well as to the U.S. Department of Education. Thanks to this, we can see just how much Harvard's crime has rose, if at all.

The DHS cited these stats, showing a 195% increase in aggravated assaults, a 460% increase in robberies, and a doubling of "bias crimes" over the past four years. While these may seem worrying when devoid of context, these percentages must be put into perspective.

With a student population of 25,000 in 2023, Harvard only saw 301 crimes, with 58 being aggravated assaults, 28 being robberies, and 10 being "bias crimes." These rates only decrease with each previous year, most likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its residual effects.

(Harvard saw more scooter thefts than aggravated assaults or robberies in 2023)
In 2024, the amount of crimes had risen to 659; technically, it's easy and factual to claim that Harvard's crime occurrence has more than doubled. Statisticians call this the "law of small numbers" -- the acquirement of a sample statistic without considering the sample size. This cognitive bias can be deceptive in its representation of numbers. 

Even if one assumed that each crime was committed by a different person out of a student population of 21,000 (in 2024), that would only amount to 3% of the population having committed any wrongdoing.

Click here to see a chart of the crimes committed on Harvard's campus in 2024.

Despite this evidence, the Trump Administration had stopped nigh $3B worth of Harvard's funding for grants and contracts, as well as the threat of revoking the university's certification, the Harvard Gazette cites. In retaliation, Harvard pursued legal action, issuing two civil lawsuits against the Trump Administration.

Ultimately, the Clery Act is an invaluable tool for those concerned with just what is or isn't occurring on a campus.

- C. Thomas Bailey

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